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Indivisible South Bay LA writes:

The Governor’s Race

Indivisible South Bay LA is not currently endorsing any candidates for Governor. This discussion is about avoiding the disastrous outcome of inadvertently electing a Republican governor.

Under California’s unique primary system, candidates from all parties are listed on a single ballot. Only the top two finishers advance to the November general election, which creates a risk of a “lockout”. This could happen if many Democrats split the roughly 60% of the vote that is left-of-center, while just two Republicans split the other 40%. In this scenario, Republicans would be guaranteed to win the governorship – we need to avoid this outcome.

How big is the risk? Here’s an average of the five recent polls taken since Eric Swalwell’s departure from the race.

You’ll see that it would take only small changes for Republicans to grab the top two spots, locking all Democrats out.

Hilton (R)  18.0%
Becerra (D)  16.0%
Steyer (D)  15.0%
Bianco (R)  14.0%
Porter (D)  9.6%
Mahan (D)  5.0%
Other (D)  4.2%
Undecided  18.2%

What should we do?

  1. The first thing to do is just wait till at least the 2nd half of May. There are likely many twists and turns yet to come in this race. There are likely more withdrawals and endorsements coming. And there are many debates coming to help you choose: USA Today Debate Schedule
  2. The second thing is that when you do vote, limit your selection to the top two (or possibly three) Democrats, based on polling in the 2nd half of May. If the 60% of the electorate that is left-leaning chooses between the top two Democrats, we are mathematically guaranteed to avoid a lockout. If we split among the top three, we are probably still OK (though it’s not guaranteed).

Today Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer are the top two Democratic candidates, but this could change by late May. We know that the 18% undecided will soon start choosing, and that people will move away from low-polling candidates.

There are no perfect candidates, and many opinions on who would make the best governor. It’s possible that none of the top Democrats will be your ideal choice. But we know that any Democrat will represent your values and beliefs in a way that the two Republicans won’t.

My local Indivisible group will send a follow-up email in the 2nd half of May, laying out the situation as it stands then. Until then, let’s all just wait and see how things unfold.

My ballot is not yet ready for prime time ~ but it will be very soon! Meanwhile, use this RESOURCES section to begin building your ballot.

However, as you’ve just read, this delay may be good for Californians–who knew?

PS: Consider sharing the following photo on social media. I also texted it to a boatload of voters and many said they were passing it on. Visuals are powerful. 

Click image for sharing options.